Issue #13: Changing Politics
Good morning, everyone! Today is May 5th. We are just over a week full of incidents. Let's take a look at what we covered for you:
What happened in Türkiye last week
Opinion: Erdoğan Meets the Opposition: New Era or False Hopes
Türkiye’s Multibillion-Dollar LNG Talks with ExxonMobil
Enjoy your read,
-Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Editor
What happened in Türkiye last week
By Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels
Two days after the banned May 1st protests, Erdoğan suggested a "softening" approach, hoping to initiate a political thaw despite his party's defeat in local elections and unfavourable economic indicators.
The CHP's Parliamentary Group protested against the new curriculum called the "Türkiye Century Education Model" in front of the Ministry of Education.
According to data released by TUIK, inflation increased by 3.18% on a monthly basis in April, reaching 69.80% on an annual basis. However, ENAG reported that inflation increased by 5.2% in April, with annual inflation rising to 124.35%.
The Ministry of Trade announced that all trade between Türkiye and Israel had been completely halted on the 208th day of Israel's attacks on Gaza.
On World Press Freedom Day, the International Press Freedom Organization (RSF) ranked Türkiye 158th out of 180 countries in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index, up from 165th place last year. However, this seven-place improvement does not necessarily indicate an improvement in media freedom, as Türkiye still remains in the "Very serious" category regarding media freedom.
Erdoğan meets the opposition: New era or false hopes
Opinion
By Sinan Akyol, London
On Thursday, CHP leader Özgür Özel and President Erdoğan met at the AKP headquarters, marking the end of an 8 year period in which no private meetings were held between the opposition leader and the President. Some of the points of discussion include the establishment of an Earthquake Ministry, the plight of underpaid pensioners, and a potential minimum wage hike. However, the agenda item generating the most speculation is the Constitution: While the government seeks a constitutional amendment and is in search for new political partners willing to consent, the CHP sees this as a moment where the tide of democratic backsliding can be reversed.
Opposition supporters boast of the CHP leader’s new-gained ability to set the course of the political agenda after years of relative passivity. The CHP, in the name of moderation and consensus, may choose to become an unlikely partner of the AKP and consent to amend the constitution. Yet, the apparent contrast between Erdoğan’s and Özel’s motivations in arranging this historical meeting is reason to be wary. Without the ability to force the government to comply with the democratic obligations of the current constitution, such a partnership is unlikely to serve the CHP’s aim of consolidating Turkish democracy. The heavy-handed repression of last week’s May Day demonstrations, just a day before the Özel-Erdoğan meeting, was a timely reminder of the government’s attitude towards civil liberties. In other words, the meeting may well be a sign of a more dovish period in Turkish politics, but suspicions remain. The CHP should not forget that Erdoğan has a long track record of tossing old partners aside after getting what he wants.
Türkiye’s multibillion-Dollar LNG talks with ExxonMobil
By Ata Ahmet Kökçü, Ankara
Türkiye diversifies energy portfolio amid Russian dependency: Türkiye is currently in discussions with ExxonMobil regarding a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal potentially worth billions. This moves forms part of Türkiye’s broader strategy to reduce its heavy reliance on Russian energy supplies. The proposed deal, still under negotiation, would see Türkiye purchasing up to 2.5 million tonnes of LNG annually from ExxonMobil for the next decade.
Strategic Energy Moves Following Diplomatic Thaws
These negotiations are set against a backdrop of warming relations between Türkiye and the United States, following Türkiye’s agreement to lift its veto on Sweden's NATO membership. Concurrently, the U.S. has greenlighted a substantial sale of F-16 fighter jets to Türkiye. Moreover, Türkiye’s aspirations to transform into a regional energy hub are gaining traction, bolstering its strategic position on the global energy map.
Economic and Geopolitical Implications
The ongoing discussions involve not only significant financial stakes—with the current value of the discussed volume of LNG estimated at approximately $1.1 billion—but also considerable geopolitical implications. Türkiye’s push to diversify its energy sources comes at a critical time, as Ankara prepares for the expiration of its long-term gas contracts with Russia in 2025 and with Iran in 2026.
Türkiye’s Domestic Energy Developments
Simultaneously, Türkiye is bolstering its domestic energy capabilities, notably through initiatives like its exploration and potential production activities in the Black Sea, Mediterranean and its continued investments in LNG infrastructure. These efforts aim to mitigate external dependencies and foster a more self-reliant energy sector.